📐 Poisson: λ dom=1.39 λ ext=0.98 → P(Over 1.5)=68.6% | 📊 Cote 1.46 → Prob implicite 0% | ⚠️ Value +0% | 📈 Forme: Derby County FC 0.9b/m, Stoke City FC 1.9b/m | 🤝 H2H: 2.3 buts/match (4 conf.)