📐 Poisson: λ dom=2.07 λ ext=1.18 → P(Over 0.5 1H)=76.8% | 📊 Cote 1.3 → Prob implicite 0% | ⚠️ Value +0% | 📈 Forme: AFC Ajax 3b/m, NEC 1.5b/m | 🤝 H2H: 3 buts/match (4 conf.)